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南京首次喊出五年内拿下“千万人口”目标!达成的概率有多高?

  • 2026-04-16 03:44:37
南京首次喊出五年内拿下“千万人口”目标!达成的概率有多高?
近日，《南京市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要》正式发布。尽管之前已有不少省份和城市也已经公布了“十五五规划”，但南京这次的规划有一点与众不同，就是在全国人口连续四年下降、江苏人口去年首次出现下降（去年减少了8万人）的背景下，南京喊出了实施“双三十五”和“千万人口攻坚”行动，到“十五五”末，力争全市35岁以下青年人口占比超过35%、常住人口总量超千万。
去年南京有多少常住人口？
目前南京市统计局的官网尚未查到《南京市2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》，最新的只有2024年的统计公报。但当地的自媒体在公众号上贴出了南京2025年统计公报上公布的人口数据，我们暂且信以为真，意味着南京去年增加了6.15万人，常住人口达到963.85万人，距离千万人口还有36万人的差距！
南京五年内能达成人口目标吗？
再往前看三年，南京2022年、2023年、2024年分别增加了6.77万人、5.59万人、3万人，算上2025年新增的6.15万人，南京近四年的年均人口增量为5.4万人！目前南京距离千万人口尚有36万人的缺口，也就是每年需要平均增加7.2万人，也就是要比前四年的平均增量还要增加1.8万人，增幅要达到33%，在当前江苏人口下滑的情形之下，这绝对不是一个轻松就能完成的目标！要知道，十四五期间，长三角另外一个城市——温州也曾提出常住人口在2025年达到千万人口的目标，但实际也未能完成！
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000761s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=b460;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000913s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000331s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000284s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000482s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000203s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000494s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 529504 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000453s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1776851821 WHERE `id` = 529504 [ RunTime:0.000964s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000241s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 529504 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000530s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 529504 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000375s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 529504 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000680s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 529504 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.000800s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 529504 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.000816s ]
0.107038s