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南京老破小学区房价大跌背后,以及对南京二手房市场的影响

  • 2026-07-18 12:42:52
南京老破小学区房价大跌背后,以及对南京二手房市场的影响
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南京中小学招生政策公布一个多月后

2026年南京中小学招生政策公布的时候，阿鼎就说——
摊牌了｜新招生政策必然让南京学区房房价将持续降价！老破小或将跌的更多！
一个月后结果是——老破小房价已经暴跌。成交均价没出来，看看这个挂牌价——安居客网显示，鼓楼区挂牌价一个月降了7.8%！
成交呢？
前两天和主营鼓楼树人学区房的同事在一起聊天，总结三点：
第一：挂牌量翻了一倍。不用解释，前段时间大家朋友圈都看到了。
第二：房价一个月跌了百分之二三十。5月份基本两百二三十万以上，现在基本200以内。一百六十七万也能搞定。不相信的到本月底，6月份的成交数据基本会被各大中介同仁们扒出来。大家可以持续关注。
第三：成交量跌了六七成。往年6月份树人学区能成交五六十套，今年6月就十几套。

老破小学区房降价的后续影响

这种降价，给南京二手房市场带来什么影响？
最大的影响就是每平米成交均价将迎来大幅度降低。数据有延迟，会在未来两三个月内体现。
南京房价之所以一直比较高，主要原因就是每年占南京二手房成交大头的的鼓楼、秦淮、玄武的老破小学区房，他们每年成交套数占比超过20%！最高峰的时候，主流老破小学区房超过大多超过6万一平，8万一平比比皆是，超过10万的学区房成交也有不少。这些远高于南京成交均价的老破小学区房，一套老破小学区房成交，可以拉高至少5套其他区域住房的成交均价。是这些高单价的老破小把南京成交均价拉高了很多。
老破小在五月份之前已经相对最高峰跌了50%都不止。现在又碰上了南京中小学招生政策大放水，这让老破小房价的水分一个月降了百分之二三十！后面还要降多少？阿鼎猜测不猜测了，猜的多不符合主流想法，讲讲现状就好。
老破小一线学区房降价，必然导致二线学区房（不一定是老破小）降价，二线学区房降价，一定也会导致三线没有学区房的房源降价。这是必然的连锁反应！
阿鼎认为9月1号后，老破小第二波降级潮开始。9月份开始南京所有低于200万以内的纯刚需房源将受到老破小学区房降价的影响，开始降价。
影响到200万的房子后，会扩散到300万以内的，再传递到400~800万以内的。再到千万以上……
未来一年内会传递到南京全部市场。
但也不能太悲观，因为这次是因为学区房政策问题，对老破小学区房冲击大。对其他房源有影响，但影响会逐渐降低。
以上的数据，仅是阿鼎在和同事沟通后，以及问了下其他同仁后的感觉结果。你觉得南京老破小学区房这一个月跌了多少！？

再观察三个月，就知道阿鼎说的真假！

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讲真|南京房价最贵板块，税收≈0

管中窥豹|到底还有多少外地人到南京买房！？

讲真？|25万在南京租学区房上学？钱都这么好骗？

摊牌了｜新招生政策必然让南京学区房房价将持续降价！老破小或将跌的更多！

未来10年｜人口预计减少4000万！房价能咋样！？

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.001174s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=b460;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001885s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.015594s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.008310s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001838s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.003171s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001973s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 596906 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.056525s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1784362867 WHERE `id` = 596906 [ RunTime:0.005566s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000703s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 596906 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001300s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 596906 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.003542s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 596906 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.005420s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 596906 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.045034s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 596906 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.004283s ]
0.331282s