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2026南京中考人数7.2万、7.4万还是7.5万?

  • 2026-03-24 11:03:31
2026南京中考人数7.2万、7.4万还是7.5万?
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昨天，南京市招考院发布了2026南京中考艺术素质测评考试完成的文章。
这篇文章是每年的例行发布，但是2024年文章里公布了一个重要参考数据，就是参加考试人数，基本就代表了当年的中考人数。其他年份都没有标注~
于是乎，我们汇总一下近4年的情况，大致估算一下2026年的中考人数吧。
2023年：214个考点、336个考场，最后中考人数6.57万。
2024年：218个考点、352个考场，最后中考人数6.56万。
2025年：220个考点、364个考场，最后中考人数6.94万。
2026年：223个考点、376个考场。
2023年每个考场平均195人，2024年每个考场平均186人，2025年每个考场平均191人。那么我们可以估算2026年每个考场至少190人，多则接近200人。
那么2026年中考人数至少有7.15万，多则7.5万。也是符合我们之前预测的。
因为目前比较有参考价值的数据就是2023年，南京小升初招生计划是7.5万人，有点冗余的话，实际毕业人数不到7.5万。也是很多学校老师答疑的时候说的，今年大概7.4万人。
再考虑到今年计划扩招4000个普高学位，我个人也比较倾向于2026年有7.4万左右的中考生。不过最后还是以官方公布数据为主，就是要等到6、7月份了~
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000426s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=b460;charset=utf8mb4
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  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000254s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000573s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000211s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000612s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 513413 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.009082s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1774333777 WHERE `id` = 513413 [ RunTime:0.010295s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001961s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 513413 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005621s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 513413 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.006917s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 513413 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.035409s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 513413 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.017447s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 513413 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.053121s ]
0.214357s