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科技聚焦 | 南京水利科学研究院:基于多源信息的网格化中小河流洪水预报模型及实时校正技术

  • 2026-06-02 17:08:26
科技聚焦 | 南京水利科学研究院:基于多源信息的网格化中小河流洪水预报模型及实时校正技术

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中小河流洪水预报难在哪？多源信息“看不懂”、预报精度“不稳定”。

南京水利科学研究院研发的基于多源信息的网格化中小河流洪水预报模型及实时校正技术，给出了破解方案：通过构建动态流域网格与新安江模型，结合KNN与集合卡尔曼滤波算法，实现了洪水预报结果的动态网格化输出与实时校正。

目前，该技术已在华北、华东等多个典型流域示范应用，洪峰流量与峰现时间预报合格率最高提升20%以上，湿润区预报精度达60%–80%，为精准防汛提供了关键技术支撑。

 技术原理简介

面对中小河流洪水预报中多源观测信息难以有效整合利用的行业难题，一项由南京水利科学研究院研发的创新技术应运而生。

该技术面向多源观测信息难以直接用于洪水预报的问题，构建基于多源水文、气象和下垫面信息的动态流域网格与新安江模型，结合KNN（K-nearestneighbor）和集合卡尔曼滤波提出网格化联合校正方法，充分利用洪水发生发展过程中的多源观测，实现洪水预报结果的动态网格化输出和实时校正，提高中小河流洪水预报精度。

技术优势表现

1.洪峰流量、峰现时间的预报合格率提升20%以上，精度稳定性在预见期6h 内；

2.洪峰流量、峰现时间的预报合格率提升10%以上

适用范围

适用于需要进行实时洪水预报的流域，特别是有多种来源观测信息或实时反馈信息的流域。

持有单位

水利部 交通运输部 国家能源局南京水利科学研究院

完成人

刘艳丽、关铁生、张建云、金君良、刘翠善、王国庆、马昱斐、范丽丽、闫文慧

来源：南京水利科学研究院、水文水资源研究所、科研管理处

▶ 关于城市防洪排涝国际论坛（IFUFC）

“城市防洪排涝国际论坛（IFUFC）”致力于为全球城市防洪排涝问题提供全新解决方案和思路，传播行业先进技术、理念及成功经验。论坛由国家住房和城乡建设部城市建设司、国家防汛抗旱总指挥部办公室、中国工程院土木、水利与建筑工程学部、中国土木工程学会、中国水利学会等单位共同发起，每两年举办一届。首届论坛举办于2013年，累计参会院士50余位，累计发表大会专家报告400余场，累计参与国家超过20个，累计参会总人次达3200人，累计行业重点企事业单位参会近1500家。

往届回顾

祝贺中国工程院工程科技学术研讨会——第二届城市与重大基础设施韧性研讨会 & 第七届城市防洪排涝国际论坛在上海成功召开！
低碳韧性 “智”水有方 | 第六届城市防洪排涝国际论坛在武汉成功召开！
科学防洪排涝，提升城市品质——2021（第五届）城市防洪排涝国际论坛圆满落幕！
后台回复“加群”即可加入IFUFC城市防洪排涝交流群

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.001204s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=b460;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001504s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000751s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000800s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001319s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000547s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001559s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 560688 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001061s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1780772335 WHERE `id` = 560688 [ RunTime:0.004180s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000596s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 560688 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001253s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 560688 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001107s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 560688 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.005020s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 560688 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.004683s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 560688 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.006700s ]
0.195773s