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南京网红猴——一个奋斗者的遭遇

  • 2026-06-04 21:45:51
南京网红猴——一个奋斗者的遭遇
中东大国的遭遇，多像跋涉在崎岖山路上的一个奋斗者。因为你弱小，所有人都会过来消遣你一下，所期待的公平道义无从谈起。太弱小了，即便有大哥愿意为你说句公道话，也需要考虑一下自己会不会被牵连。
所以，想要公平，自己的块头先要够大才行。但力量的天平不会永远向一边倾斜，多行不义必自毙，只是，有时候黑暗的时间会很久很久，谁知道呢，哈哈。智慧的做法是打不过就加入；但要有尊严的活着，就得死扛到底。这让人想起了动物园里那个水上漂的泼猴。
要想称王，先上岸。盟友多了才好说。相比这个网红猴，狗王查理就智慧的多。回头想想，过去的自己不就是那个水里的泼猴吗？过于孤傲又倔强要强的性格给自己惹了很多不必要的麻烦。
儿时曾跟父亲学拳，听的最多的一句话就是，“要博采众家之长”，一个好的拳手一定是个杂家。颇有一些截拳道的味道，放下偏见与成见，抛却门派与宗法，以实用适用为根本。
成长最快的办法是从错误中学习，成本最低的学习方法是从别人的错误中学习经验。
以下，记录最近2个月所犯的重大失误，自省，也与各位朋友共勉。
自开年以来，美伊战争趋势，尤其是对布伦特原油关键阈值120美元/桶的预测，全中，但交易执行全部做错。
石油危机以来，大盘总体处于我们交易系统的卖出区间。叠加年后新增的大量机构信息来源，导致原计划预期1倍收益的石化板块交易策略在执行过程中出现了严重的失误，基本面判断对了，交易执行完全做错了，完全的情绪化了；另外，对于货币格局的变化预期太过乐观，对全球货币格局演变的交易产生了些许亏损，错把10年期的周期趋势 当做 年度级别的主题风格是根本性周期判断失误。
其他板块，如算电协同，算力租赁、油运化工、光器件、碳化硅、CPU板块的交易也被动的陷入了情绪化。每个人有每个人的认知局限，作为信息末端的普通投资人，对同一信息的解读千差万别。不同体系的决策可能完全相反，君子和而不同，或许也是在讲这个道理。最终在近2个月，账户总体反而出现了5%左右的平均回撤，跑输指数15个点左右，索性在一段时间的空仓修正之后，重新找到了节奏，即将追平综合指数。
美&伊停火以来，布什号航母，4月25日初步具备了作战能力，截止5月7日第2轮的打击似乎又要开始，如果伊朗石油岛被大规模轰炸。如果6月霍尔木兹海峡的通行量无法恢复至500-800万桶/天，布伦特原油价格将突破120美元/桶，届时美联储可能趁机加息（至少维持利率不变）或是缩表；如果6月能够恢复到500-800桶/天的通行量，全球非霍尔木兹海峡石油增量也可增加800万桶/天左右，布伦特价格将可以长期维持在80-100美元/桶。
综合看，SpaceX 将在6月IPO，open AI 和 anthropic 也将在下半年开始IPO。美联储新主席上台，市场预期可能开启“缩表+降息”的政策组合。在高油价的背景下，这种政策组合将大幅度虹吸非美市场的美元，美股依旧是灯塔。当然这里我们缺少充足的数据，无法判断美元是否有缩表的必要，只能等待帽子落地。
中东战争，伊看似挺能抗，但美的核心战略目标已经完全实现。后续只是怎么收尾，宏观趋势已经稳，后续需回归传统投资框架体系。
值得关注的是特朗普来见习大大，谈些啥；以及6月份的美联储政策，是不是要缩表，这概率并不低。但目前全球货币经济学已经从信息时代的信用制转向了信息制，货币的投放不再单单以经济体商品和利润模式作为支撑锚定。会不会引发新一轮的金融危机，核心往往不是来自于外部，更多的是 源自于“”经济体内部结构的失控导致对外风险被迫暴露在对手的势力范围之内，而失去自我调节能力”。否则往往都是可以通过QE来进行续命的，尤其是后AI时代，货币的投放将异常疯狂。
代币体系，未来必将成为AI智能体之间的交易货币，至于以何种方式换算成法定货币，我想这是一个重要的课题，并蕴藏着巨大的机会，只是这个产业的兑现可能比大多数人想象的要漫长的多，并且可能长到 它可能并不会是一个有足够受益率的生意。
至于看好哪些板块，机器人、航天卫星、固态电池、端侧AI、钠离子电池；还有那持续高温的半导体。防守看消费，有些消费行业已经进入出清的后半段了。
有β就买β，没有β就买α。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000566s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=b460;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000878s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.003673s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000292s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000531s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000199s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000632s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 560008 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.004150s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1781344568 WHERE `id` = 560008 [ RunTime:0.007854s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000268s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 560008 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000473s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 560008 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000456s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 560008 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.008220s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 560008 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.007712s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 560008 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.007576s ]
0.112173s