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疯狂出货!南京学区房,正在紧急抛售...

  • 2026-06-04 22:27:51
疯狂出货!南京学区房,正在紧急抛售...
跟我们预测的一样，鼓楼新政策发布之后，南京顶级书包房格局大变，一大波名校房源正在抛售！
其中树人学校房源变化最大，据周围中介反馈：他们店平时一天的新增挂牌量大概是3-5套，招生政策出台后1天内，当天登记挂牌的房源就达到了60多套，翻了近20倍。
与此同时，买房人表现冷淡，有个客户，家里孩子在上五年级，本来很着急要买套初中书包房。现在入学政策变了，她反而不着急了，说等到明年再看吧！
这就是政策的威力，供给侧增加太多，而需求侧持续观望，所以短期内对房价的冲击还是非常大的。当然最近挂牌的价格比较稳定，但挂牌价不是成交价，最后看谁先慌，总有人会低价抛售的。
那么鼓楼区的这个政策，对于南京的书包格局，到底会产生什么影响？我想大概是几个方面：
1.老破小书包房的房价要跌20-40%：南京顶级书包房的门槛价，现在还是200万左右，或者不到200但也接近200个，这个价格是守不住的，我估计会调整到100-150万左右。这个没办法，供需失衡了，价格不可能往上走。而且去年因为不让择校了，导致很多价格被短期推高了，本来就有人为制造的泡沫，今年这些估值全部要打掉。
2. 优质次新书包房的房价微跌：在龙江，在河西，南京也有一些交付不满8年的优质次新房，也带有一定书包属性，这些房价受政策的影响不大，但仍然会有影响，30-50万的调整是有的。我说的是政策影响，房价变化还会受大环境的其他影响，不在本次讨论之列。
3. 书包房的成交量，先抑后扬：政策一出来，房东抛售，买房人犹豫不决，观望心态很重，所以短期内成交会变少。但长期看，由于书包房的流通性变强，之前很多买不起的，也可以买了，覆盖面会加大，成交量会增加。相关中介的业务会有较大的反弹。
4. 买房人迎来好时机：真正想买书包房的，未来1年是一个好时机，议价空间加大，如果价格下来了，确实有一定抄底的机会，毕竟名校还是稀缺资源，还有较高的价值。对于房东来说，这个政策是一次危机，但对于买房人来说，是一个机会。还是那句话，关键看成本。200万爱答不理，100万还是可以看看的。
5. 鼓楼区要虹吸全南京：鼓楼区出这个政策，就是要虹吸全南京优质生源，继续把名校做大做强。其他区学校该关停关停，该合并合并，鼓楼区仍然热热闹闹，人声鼎沸。房价下去了，但名校保住了，老师的饭碗也保住了，大家都赢了！
你觉得的呢？
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000628s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=b460;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000810s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.001167s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.002271s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000689s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001824s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000678s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 558261 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002554s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1781446715 WHERE `id` = 558261 [ RunTime:0.039107s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001599s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 558261 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002208s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 558261 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001721s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 558261 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.040048s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 558261 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.017644s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 558261 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.010873s ]
0.208039s