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苏州楼市已经分化到非常离谱的程度

  • 2026-02-16 09:15:45
苏州楼市已经分化到非常离谱的程度
新房和二手房之间差值越来越大
以至于很多首次置业的刚需，根本连看新房的勇气没有
“太贵了，买不起”
前两天统计了苏州贝系二手房的成交数据
有开发商朋友跟我说，这个数据也太夸张了，问我成交数据到底准不准
我说不能谈绝对准确，但基本大差不差
但按照25年贝系的二手数据
150W以内的二手成交占比超过50%
如果把二手成交价放宽250W以内，占比已经超过80%
然后开发商的朋友表示难以理解，低总价二手成交占比实在太高了
在他们理解中，苏州大多区域新房几乎都得几百万预算，怎么二手房总价这么低
150W在苏州想买新房，只有远郊到不能再郊的区域才有选择，中环以内根本没有
哪怕放宽到250W以内，想去买新房也几乎是凤毛麟角，选择非常少
尤其狮山、园区、姑苏区三个区域里面，新房普遍500W+预算
甚至你到园区稍微核心一点的区域，650W才是上车的门槛
当我们很多人都在讨论，狮山园区次新破发成交亏损数百万的时候，感觉苏州买几百万的房子早已是常态
却忽略了一个事实，绝大多二手购买力，是以刚需为主
但根据克尔瑞统计的25年新房销售总额榜单
苏州新房过去一年销售额最高的是湖滨四季、绿城玫瑰园、晋墅这样的双湖顶豪
这上面去掉回购的项目，四季健康和时光青澄这两个小区
剩下的几个项目，哪怕以低总价著称的四季听澜，套均总价也要300W以上
然后你会发现两个极端
新房越贵的越好卖，而且总价越来越高，千万级别的豪宅貌似不缺客户
普通一些好卖的项目，基本也都是套均300W以上
但是二手越卖越便宜，80%购买力是250W以内的客群
新房和二手房之间差值越来越大
以至于很多首次置业的刚需，根本连看新房的勇气没有
“太贵了，买不起”
新房和二手房购买力的分化，已经到了非常离谱的程度
以前我们看二手房的时候，一般都会跟新房去比较
但现在二手就是二手，新房就是新房
说的更直接一些，新房越来越豪宅化
不管是总价也好，还是面积也好，都是如此
远郊区域也不做小面积了，做联排
近郊区域做叠加、做洋房
核心区域做大平层
各位买房人会发现，新房越来越贵
如果你用二手房标准来看，根本无法理解
毕竟总价600W以上，只占了1.5%不到的成交量
但我们换个思路来想
高总价二手房之所以成交量占比这么低
是因为绝大多购买力都流入了新房市场
新房为了控制供应量，完全放弃了以前的模式
33F的大高，小面积，上千户套数的小区早已看不到了
取而代之的是别墅，是叠加，是大平层
而且目前这个趋势还在继续
尤其现在很多核心区域出现的状况更能直接反映出来
比如园区很多老二手只能卖2W左右
但是一路之隔的新房却要卖5W上下
未来楼市分化或许还会加大，新房二手市场也更加割裂
可能会出现这样一个市场
新房就是新房，二手就是二手
两者之间互相独立且互不影响

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免责声明：以上仅代表个人建议，不构成任何买房依据，仅供楼市友好交流，有误之处还请指出，有不同意见者，请以自己判断为准

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000583s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=b460;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000650s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000359s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000831s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000484s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000204s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000478s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 465517 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000456s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1772009919 WHERE `id` = 465517 [ RunTime:0.000750s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 64 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000198s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 465517 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002067s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 465517 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002682s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 465517 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.007447s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 465517 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.001459s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 465517 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.003249s ]
0.089610s